Water AlliesTier 1
at Store Champs Kachi Cafe
decks
1
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-1-2
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.1%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
55.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1501
· median 1501
· range 1501–1501
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1106
Q1 1287
Q3 1472
1642
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 20.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -6.2 |
| Slimes | 16.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 16.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.3% | +1.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
